Example Data of Dichotomous Observations and Probabilistic Forecasts

Dichotomous observations (obsv) and discrete probabilistic forecasts (fcst) of the Nino-3.4 index for January 1961-2000. The forecast data stem from model runs initialized using data for the preceding August 1960-1999. Definition of an "event" in the observations: obsv >= 27 C. The probabilistic forecasts have been estimated by taking the fraction of ensemble members predicting the event.

Format

A data frame with 40 rows and 3 columns:

years

integer, year of observation (1961-2000)

obsv

integer, dichotomous observations (0/1; event defined as Nino-3.4 index >= 27 C)

fcst

numeric, probabilistic forecasts (fraction of ensemble members predicting the event, values in [0, 1])

Details

The forecast data are from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model of the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) of Meteo France and were generated as part of the "Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER)" project (Palmer et al. 2004). Note that also the examples presented in the 2AFC paper by Mason and Weigel (2009) are based on these data.

References

Palmer, T.N. and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872.
Mason, S.J. and A.P. Weigel, 2009: A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331-349